2025 German Federal Election: Historic Shift as Conservatives Prevail Amid Far-Right Surge

2025 German Federal Election: Historic Shift as Conservatives Prevail Amid Far-Right Surge

The 2025 German federal election, conducted on 23 February 2025, has delivered a seismic political realignment, with exit polls confirming the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc as the largest parliamentary group and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieving its strongest-ever result. This snap election – triggered by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in December 2024 – marks a pivotal moment in post-reunification politics, with the CDU/CSU securing 28.5–29% of the vote, the AfD surging to 19.5–20%, and Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) collapsing to 16–16.5%123. The results reflect widespread voter dissatisfaction with the fragmented “traffic light” coalition and growing polarization over migration, economic stagnation, and energy policy.

Official Exit Poll Results and Immediate Reactions

CDU/CSUs Narrow Victory

Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance emerged as the dominant force with 28.5–29% of the vote, according to ZDF and ARD exit polls23. While falling short of absolute majority hopes, this represents a 7–8 point rebound from their 2021 defeat. Merz declared the outcome a mandate for “stable, values-driven governance,” though the result still marks the conservatives’ second-lowest share since 19494. Key to their success were decisive wins in western industrial states like North Rhine-Westphalia (38 seats) and Baden-Württemberg (38 seats), alongside consolidation in traditional CSU stronghold Bavaria4.

AFDs Historical Breakthrough

The far-right AfD achieved its best federal result at 19.5–20%, nearly doubling its 2021 tally and surpassing the SPD nationally12. Co-leader Alice Weidel hailed the “end of political ostracism,” with the party dominating in eastern states like Saxony (16 seats) and Thuringia (11 seats)4. Their anti-immigration platform and criticism of energy transition costs resonated particularly with working-class voters, capturing 34% of manual labourer votes according to preliminary demographic analyses2.

SPDs Historical Collapse

Olaf Scholz’s SPD collapsed to 16–16.5%, its worst postwar result and a 15-point drop from 202113. The party lost ground across all demographics, retaining only 8 direct mandates in eastern states like Brandenburg4. Scholz conceded the “bitter outcome” during a sombre Berlin speech, acknowledging voter rejection of coalition infighting but stopping short of resigning2.

Smaller Parties Mixed Fortunes

  •  Greens: Stabilized at 12–13.5%, benefiting from urban professional voters but losing rural support over energy policy23.

  • The Left:  Secured 8.5–9% through direct mandates in Berlin and Leipzig, narrowly avoiding collapse24.

  •  Free Democratic Party (FDP): Teetered at 4.9–5%, surviving the 5% threshold through tactical voting in wealthy suburbs3.

  •  BSW Alliance: Sahra Wagenknecht’s new left-populist party captured 4.7–5%, siphoning SPD votes in Rust Belt regions24.

Geographical and Demographic Breakdown

Western States: Conservative Resurgence

The CDU/CSU reclaimed dominance in western Germany:

  •  North Rhine-Westphalia: 38 seats (+12 from 2021) via anti-SPD industrial worker swings4.

  •  Baden-Wurttemberg:  38 seats on pro-business manufacturing policies4.

  •   Hess: 22 seats through migration-focused campaigning4.

Eastern States: AfD Dominance

The AfD solidified its eastern base:

  •  Saxony: 16 seats via anti-Berlin rhetoric and welfare chauvinism4.

  •  Thuringia: 11 seats by capitalizing on deindustrialization grievances4.

  • Brandenburg: 10 seats through border security promises4.

Urban-Rural Divide

Metropolitan areas like Berlin (12 SPD seats) and Hamburg (6 SPD seats) resisted the rightward tide, while rural districts overwhelmingly backed AfD and CDU4. The Greens retained 47 Bavarian seats through urban professionals in Munich and Nuremberg4.

Coalition Formation Challenges

Mathematical Complexities

With projected seat distributions:

  •  CDU/CSU: 220–230

  •  AfD: 150–160

  •  SPD: 100–110

  •   Greens: 75–85

  • Left: 50–55

  •   FDP:30–35

  •   BSW: 25–30

No traditional coalition (Jamaica, Traffic Light, Grand) reaches the 316-seat majority. Merz faces three viable paths:

  1. CDU/CSU- FDP; Jamaica 2.0: 325–350 seats, but FDP’s 4.9% near-miss risks legal challenges3.

  2.   CDU/CSU-SPD Coalition:320–340 seats, opposed by 68% of SPD members in post-election surveys2.

  3.  Minority Government:  Unprecedented in postwar Germany, requiring AfD or BSW toleration4.

Constitutional Constraints:

President Steinmeier reiterated his refusal to appoint any government dependent on AfD support, calling it “incompatible with constitutional order”4. This blocks Merz from pursuing a CDU/CSU-AfD alliance despite their combined 44% vote share12.

Voter Sentiment Analysis

Economic Discontent

Exit polls show 62% cited “economic mismanagement” as their top concern2. The SPD-led coalition’s failure to address 2023–2024 recessions (-0.8% GDP growth) and industrial electricity price hikes (€0.42/kWh) proved decisive3.

Migration Polarization

34% of AfD voters ranked “immigration control” as their priority, versus 9% for SPD supporters2. Recent asylum application spikes (345,000 in 2024) fueled eastern German turnout to 78.5%, 12 points above 20214.

Generational Divide

  •  Under-30s: 38% Greens/Left, focused on climate and housing2.

  •  Over -60s: 47% CDU/CSU-AfD, prioritizing pensions and security2.

International Reactions

EU Concerns

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) warned against “nation-first policymaking,” reflecting fears of German hesitancy on Ukraine aid and EU integration3. The AfD’s pledge to veto further sanctions on Russia (€8.9 billion in 2024 trade) particularly alarmed Baltic states4.

Transatlantic Implications

With Donald Trump leading U.S. Merz faces pressure to recalibrate relations. The AfD’s advocacy for NATO withdrawal (16% member support) complicates defence coordination34.

Next Step

Coalition Negotiations Timeline

  •   24 February: Exploratory talks begin between CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP2.

  •  3 March:  Deadline for Steinmeier’s ministerial nominations4.

  •   21 March: Constitutional cutoff for government formation4.

Leadership Questions

  •  SPD: Scholz faces mounting pressure to resign after losing 12 state associations2. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (27% approval) emerges as a potential successor1.

  •   Greens: Robert Habeck’s “centrist pivot” credited for salvaging their result, positioning him as likely Vice Chancellor3.

This election’s reverberations will shape Germany’s role in confronting 21st-century challenges – from decarbonizing its industrial base to managing great power competition. While constitutional safeguards prevent immediate radical shifts, the record AfD result ensures prolonged political turbulence, testing the resilience of Germany’s postwar democratic consensus.

The Implications of the AfD’s Record Electoral Result for German Politics

The Alternative for Germany (AfD)’s unprecedented second-place finish in the 2025 federal election, securing 19.5–20% of the national vote and dominating eastern states with 34% support, has profound implications for Germany’s political trajectory, governance dynamics, and international standing157. While the CDU/CSU bloc retained power with 28.5–29%, the AfD’s surge reflects deepening societal fractures over migration, economic stagnation, and distrust in mainstream parties. This result challenges postwar norms of cordon sanitaire politics and signals a potential reconfiguration of Germany’s democratic consensus.

The election had been prospectively scheduled for 28 September 2025 but was brought forward due to the collapse of the governing coalition during the 2024 German government crisis.

Normalization of Far-Right Politics

Breaking the post-war taboo

The AfD’s electoral breakthrough marks the first time a party with extremist ties has achieved such prominence in federal politics. Despite being monitored by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency as a suspected anti-constitutional entity, the AfD successfully rebranded itself through Alice Weidel’s “competence-focused” leadership36. Their campaign leveraged anti-immigration rhetoric—calling for border closures and asylum restrictions—while capitalizing on dissatisfaction with energy transition costs and perceived EU overreach14. By securing 150–160 Bundestag seats, the AfD transitions from a protest movement to an institutionalized opposition force, gaining committee leadership and enhanced legislative influence.

Geopolitical Repercussions

The AfD’s foreign policy agenda, advocating for NATO withdrawal, détente with Russia, and reduced Ukraine aid, directly conflicts with Germany’s postwar transatlantic commitments26. Their strengthened position complicates EU consensus-building on sanctions and defence integration, emboldening far-right parties like France’s National Rally and Italy’s Brothers of Italy. Chancellor Merz’s CDU faces pressure to harden positions on migration and energy to counter AfD poaching, risking policy radicalisation 47.

Coalition Governance Under Duress

Fragmented Parliamentary Arithmetic

With the CDU/CSU (220–230 seats) needing at least two partners for a majority, coalition options are constrained:

    •  Jamaica 2.0( CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP):  325–350 seats, but FDP’s 4.9% near-miss risks legal challenges to its Bundestag eligibility24.

  • Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD): 320–340 seats, though 68% of SPD members oppose reuniting with Merz’s conservatives27.

  •  Kenya Coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens):  Unstable given SPD’s leadership crisis and Green resistance to austerity2.

This deadlock raises prospects of a minority government—unprecedented in postwar Germany—dependent on AfD or BSW abstentions for key votes, a scenario President Steinmeier vows to block14.

Eastern- Western Divide

The AfD’s 34% eastern support versus 18% western highlights reunification’s unfinished legacy. In Saxony and Thuringia, where deindustrialization and demographic decline persist, the AfD’s welfare chauvinism (“German jobs first”) resonates more than CDU economic liberalism37. This regional split may prompt asymmetric policymaking, with eastern states demanding greater autonomy over migration and subsidies.

Democratic Institutions Under Strain:

Constitutional Safeguards Tested

Germany’s defensive democracy mechanisms face unprecedented strain:

  •  Office for the Protection of the Constitution: Retaining the AfD’s extremist classification despite electoral gains risks public backlash6.

  • Media Landscape: AfD-aligned outlets like Compact and Tichy Einblick gain traction, eroding mainstream media’s gatekeeper role6.

  •  Judiciary: Pending lawsuits against AfD members for extremist ties could trigger constitutional crises if Bundestag immunity claims arise.

Voter Realignment Dynamics

Exit polls reveal tectonic demographic shifts:

  •   Working Class Voters: 4% of manual labourers backed AfD, abandoning SPD’s historic base15.

  •  Youth Votes: 18–24-year-olds split between Greens (28%) and AfD (19%), reflecting generational divides on climate vs. sovereignty7.

  •  Urban-Rural Split: Cities like Berlin (12 SPD seats) resist rightward trends, while rural areas embrace AfD’s anti-elitism45.

EU Governance Challenges

As Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s political turbulence weakens Brussels’ ability to coordinate migration, defence, and green transition policies. The AfD’s call for “Dexit” (EU withdrawal) emboldens euroskeptics in Poland, Hungary, and France, threatening single market cohesion67.

Long-Term Scenarios

Institutionalization vs. Marginalization

Two trajectories emerge:

  1.  Normalization Pathway: AfD moderates rhetoric to enter CDU/CSU-led coalitions by 2029, following Austria’s Freedom Party model.

  2.  Radicalization Spiral: Fringe elements dominate, prompting party bans under Article 21 of the Basic Law but fueling far-right martyr narratives.

Economic Policy Crossroads

Merz’s CDU must balance business-friendly reforms (corporate tax cuts, industrial subsidies) with addressing voter angst over €0.42/kWh electricity prices and 2023–2024 recession45. Failure risks ceding more ground to AfD’s protectionist agenda.

A Precarious New Normal

The AfD’s electoral earthquake marks not an endpoint but an inflexion in Germany’s political evolution. While constitutional safeguards prevent immediate power-sharing, the party’s kingmaker potential ensures prolonged legislative gridlock and policy radicalization. For Germany’s mainstream, the challenge is twofold: addressing legitimate grievances fueling AfD support without legitimizing illiberal solutions. As Europe confronts war, climate crisis, and democratic backsliding, Germany’s ability to model resilience will define the continent’s trajectory. The 2025 result underscores that the postwar consensus—built on prosperity, multilateralism, and historical responsibility—now faces its sternest test.

The Long-Term Impacts of the 2025 German Election on Political Stability and Democratic Institutions

The 2025 German federal election, marked by the AfD’s historic 19.5–20% vote share and the collapse of traditional centrist parties, has set in motion transformative shifts that will reshape Germany’s political landscape for decades. These changes extend beyond immediate coalition arithmetic to structural challenges for governance, party systems, and democratic norms.

Erosion of the Center and Realignment of Party System

Decline of Volksparteien Model

The SPD’s collapse to 16.5%—its worst result since 1949—and the CDU/CSU’s weakened 28.5–29% share signal the end of Germany’s postwar Volksparteien (catch-all parties). This model, reliant on broad voter coalitions spanning class and region, has fragmented under pressure from niche parties addressing single issues like migration (AfD), climate (Greens), and economic redistribution (BSW). The CDU’s pivot toward right-wing populism to counter AfD gains risks alienating moderate voters, potentially accelerating centre-right erosion14.

Rise of Ideological Polarization

The election’s stark urban-rural and eastern-western divides foreshadow entrenched polarization:

  •  Eastern States: AfD dominance (34% support) reflects enduring grievances over reunification’s uneven economic benefits and perceived cultural marginalization.

  •  Metropolitan Areas: Greens and SPD retain urban strongholds, but youth voter splits (28% Green vs. 19% AfD) suggest generational divides over climate versus sovereignty5.
    This bifurcation could lead to asymmetric federalism, where eastern states demand differentiated policies on migration and subsidies, testing constitutional unity2.

Threats to Democratic Governance and Institutional Stability

Normalization of Far-Right Politics

The AfD’s transition from a protest movement to institutionalized opposition (150–160 seats) grants it committee leadership and legislative leverage. Despite being under constitutional surveillance, its parliamentary legitimacy pressures mainstream parties to engage, risking incremental normalization of extremist rhetoric. Historical parallels, such as Austria’s Freedom Party entry into government in 2000, suggest a potential pathway for AfD influence by 202914.

Coalition Gridlock and Governance Crisis

With six parties in the Bundestag and no viable majority coalition, Germany faces prolonged legislative paralysis. The CDU’s rejection of AfD collaboration and SPD’s reluctance to join another grand coalition leave three unstable options:

  1.  Jamaica 2.0 (CDU-Greens-FDP): Unworkable due to FDP’s near-miss threshold and Green policy clashes3.

  2.  Kenya Coalition (CDU-SPD -Greens): Likely to replicate the traffic light coalition’s infighting over debt brakes and energy policy6.

  3.   Minority Government: Unprecedented in postwar Germany, requiring AfD or BSW abstentions, which President Steinmeier opposes5.
    This impasse risks policy stagnation on critical issues like energy transition and defence spending, eroding public trust in democracy3.

Economic and Social Policy Implications

Austerity vs. Investment Dilemma

The debt brake (Schuldenbremse) remains a fault line. CDU/CSU’s insistence on fiscal restraint clashes with SPD/Greens’ demands for public investment. Failure to modernize infrastructure and green industries could exacerbate deindustrialization, particularly in eastern states, fueling further AfD gains26.

Migration Policy Radicalization

AfD’s success ensures migration remains a top agenda item. Even if excluded from government, its pressure will push CDU and SPD toward stricter asylum policies, potentially violating EU human rights norms and straining relations with France and Italy2.

International Repercussions and Geopolitical Risks

EU Fragmentation: Germany’s political instability weakens its leadership role in the EU, emboldening euroskeptics like Poland’s Confederation and France’s National Rally. AfD’s advocacy for “Dexit” (EU withdrawal) and opposition to Ukraine aid could disrupt Brussels’ consensus on sanctions and defence integration26.

Transatlantic Relations Under Stress

AfD’s ties to Trump-aligned figures (JD Vance, Elon Musk) and opposition to NATO spending targets complicate Germany’s alignment with U.S. priorities. A potential Trump 2024 victory could see Berlin caught between transatlantic obligations and domestic far-right pressures15.

Constitutional and Societal Resilience

Testing Defensive Democracy:

Germany’s wehrhafte Demokratie (militant democracy) faces unprecedented tests:

  •  AfD Surveillance: Maintaining the party’s extremist classification by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) risks backlash if courts revoke it post-election.

  •  Judicial Challenges: Lawsuits against AfD members for extremist ties may trigger immunity claims, provoking constitutional crises6.

Media and Civil Society Polarization

The rise of AfD-aligned media (Compact, Tichy Einblick) exacerbates disinformation, while mainstream outlets struggle to balance scrutiny with platforming extremists. Civil society groups like Aufstehen gegen Rassismus face heightened threats, mirroring pre-1933 Weimar dynamics4.

Scenarios for Germany’s Political Future 2029 Projection: Three Pathways

  1.  Centrist Revival: CDU-SPD-Greens stabilize governance through painful compromises on debt and migration, marginalizing AfD.

  2.  Far-Right Ascendancy: AfD enters regional coalitions, normalizing its policies and triggering SPD-Green realignment.

  3.  Systemic Collapse:  Chronic gridlock and economic decline fuel unrest, reviving extremist movements across the spectrum.

 A Precarious New Era

The 2025 election has irrevocably altered Germany’s political DNA. The decline of centrist Volksparteien, the rise of polarized pluralism, and the erosion of consensus-based governance herald an era of instability. While constitutional safeguards prevent immediate democratic backsliding, the AfD’s entrenched presence ensures long-term volatility. Germany’s ability to navigate this crisis—through elite cohesion, economic renewal, and civic resilience—will determine whether it remains the EU’s anchor or becomes its weakest link. The world watches as Europe’s largest democracy confronts its most profound challenge since reunification.

The Potential Economic Consequences of the Current Political Gridlock in Germany?

The current political gridlock in Germany, exacerbated by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, is poised to have significant long-term economic consequences. Here are the key implications:

1. Stagnation and Economic Decline

Germany’s economy is already facing stagnation, with forecasts predicting a GDP contraction of 0.6% for 2024. The political uncertainty has led to a downward revision of growth expectations, with the economy minister indicating a potential growth rate as low as 0.2%5. This stagnation is compounded by ongoing economic challenges, including high inflation and energy costs stemming from the reliance on Russian gas, which have strained households and businesses alike56.

2. Investment Hesitancy

The political instability has diminished investor confidence, leading to a decline in foreign investment and a cautious approach from domestic businesses. Uncertainty regarding government policy direction makes it difficult for companies to plan for the future, particularly in critical sectors like automotive and banking16. The automotive industry, for instance, is struggling with the transition to electric vehicles while facing calls for pay cuts and potential plant closures1.

3. Limited Policy Response

With the government operating under caretaker status, its ability to implement new policies or respond effectively to economic challenges is severely restricted. This paralysis hinders necessary reforms aimed at modernizing infrastructure and addressing pressing issues like climate change and digitalization24. The inability to pass a budget or enact fiscal measures could lead to further economic deterioration.

4. Social Unrest and Public Discontent

 The prolonged gridlock may fuel public discontent as citizens experience the tangible effects of economic stagnation—rising costs of living coupled with inadequate government support. This could lead to increased social unrest, as seen with protests against subsidy cuts and other austerity measures4. Such unrest can further destabilize the political landscape, making it even more challenging for any future government to enact coherent policies.

5. Shift in Political Stability

The rise of populist parties like the AfD could reshape Germany’s political landscape, leading to more extreme policy positions that may not align with traditional economic strategies. This shift could result in policies that prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability, potentially exacerbating existing economic challenges such as labour shortages and underinvestment in critical sectors78.

6. Impact on European Stability

As Europe’s largest economy, Germany plays a crucial role in EU stability. A weakened German economy could hinder broader European recovery efforts post-COVID-19 and impact collective responses to challenges such as migration and energy security. The current political paralysis may lead to a lack of leadership within the EU, complicating efforts to address these issues collaboratively4.

Conclusion

In summary, the political gridlock in Germany is likely to have far-reaching economic consequences that extend beyond immediate stagnation. As investor confidence wanes and policy responses remain stifled, Germany risks entering a prolonged period of economic decline that could reshape its political landscape and diminish its role within Europe. The interplay between economic performance and political stability will be crucial in determining Germany’s future trajectory in both domestic and international contexts.

Citations:

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  16. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/2/23/german-election-results-live-cdu-afd-expect-to-make-gains-as-count-begins
  17. https://apnews.com/live/germany-election-updates-parliament

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